The Myth of Genius

Let's dispel a myth right now. There is no such thing as a genius baseball manager. I know this may come as a huge blow to Tony La Russa's ego, but it's true. As much as they all want to think they're re-inventing the game of baseball, nothing could be further from the truth. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to be the manager of a baseball team.

The simple fact of the matter is baseball hasn't really changed much in the last eighty years. Sure, it's more of a power game now, but it was at other points in history, too. And we have slowly evolved from the four-man rotation that pitched complete games to the five-man rotation that gives you six innings per start. But other than that, everything else is relatively the same. Your leadoff hitter gets on base. Your two-hole guy can handle the bat and move the runners. Your three-man is your overall best hitter and your cleanup guy is your masher. It's like this today. It was like this on the '27 Yankees. And everybody runs their team relatively the same way.

So what's the difference between the game's best managers and the game's worst? The ability to handle a pitching staff—a bullpen especially—and a boatload of luck. That's it. Nobody wants to believe it, because no GM can justify a hiring decision based on something as intangible as luck. And the ability to handle a bullpen is just as dicey. Depending on your pitchers and how they perform, you can look brilliant one day and absolutely moronic the next.

You can probably figure out where I'm going with this. Joe Torre was no genius. I'm not "hating" on Torre, but you'd be hard pressed to argue differently. Sure, he won at least 90 games every season (except for 2000, but he won a World Series so who cares?). But he was also handed a stacked team every season. It's pretty hard to screw that up. You fill out your lineup card, and throw Jeter and Martinez and O'Neill in there every day, then sit back and enjoy the ride. In the meantime, you have your four key horses in the 'pen (Rivera, Stanton, Nelson and Mendoza) and you ride them all the way to a title. And with those four guys, you didn't have to have a strong read on the pulse of your pitching staff to manage it effectively.

Most of Torre's success, besides being based on insane talent around him, was based on luck. Pure and simple. In the title years, we called the luck "magic." But it was still luck. Whenever Torre made a move, it worked. Bench Tino in the '96 World Series? Cecil Fielder hits the key double in Game 5. Start Tino in the '98 World Series? He hits a grand slam in Game 1. Bring Cone out of the 'pen to face Piazza in the Subway Series? Harmless flyout. And let's not even talk about David Weathers, Graham Lloyd and Mariano Duncan in '96!

But here's the thing with luck. It runs out. The magic never lasts forever. All of a sudden, the gut calls go cold. Bring in Jeff Weaver in extra innings in '03? Lose Game 4 on a walk-off homer. Pitch Kevin Brown in Game 7 of '04 against the Sox? He gets bitch-slapped all over the park. Pitch Wang on three day's rest against the Indians last year? Kevin Brown redux.

And when you're not getting lucky, all of a sudden, people see the bad judgement calls. Plainly. When Jeff Nelson constantly bails you out, nobody notices he's pitching 800 innings a year. But they notice when Scott Proctor is and his arm practically falls off. Edwar Ramirez gets called up and strikes out the side in his first appearance. And then he inexplicably collects dust in the bullpen for two weeks. And then we all act surprised when he finally gets in a game and can't find the strike zone?

I appreciate Joe Torre for four world titles and twelve straight post-season appearances. I appreciate him using his luck on our behalf. But the well is dry, so it's time to find someone else who has a fresh batch of luck. And in the meantime, maybe the new guy can protect our young arms.

Again, I'm not anti-Torre. I'm anti- the Torre apologists. If he's as smart as you all think is, why did he need the Joba Rules? If he's as much of a genius as you all think, let's see how he does in L.A. with half the payroll and half the talent. Learn from the St. Louis Cardinals. La Russa sure looked smarter when his guys were actually making the plays.

Image: club-yankees.com